Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell appreciably yesterday. There are four consecutive business days of falls. And now they are exceptionally low; not a million miles from its all-time low.
And they may not be finished yet. Because, judging from initial activity in key markets, those declines may be slowing rather than stopping. And today’s mortgage rates are likely to drop modestly. But, overnight, markets were pointing for a small rise, so things are far from stable and could change as the hours go by.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jul 21, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jul 21, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest on how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Read on for the reasons why mortgage rates are so unpredictable today. Unfortunately, that makes both locking and floating risky.
Those of us who have been predicting higher mortgage rates (virtually all experts and observers) have thus far been proven completely wrong. But just because we misread the calendar doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t go up anytime soon. And, as long as the forces that should drive these rates up remain strong, I have to stick with my long-held vision. However, I am less confident than before.
So while they should be interpreted within that context, my personal rate blocking recommendations should remain:
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine, or better. Therefore, you can choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the situation from this morning at approximately 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, we only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and Federal Reserve interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and guess what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We continue to make daily calls. And they are usually right. But our precision record won’t reach its previous highs until things calm down.
Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to trust them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates so far appear to be falling modestly. But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature at this time.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jul 21, 2021)
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
So a lot is happening here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the next few hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
Today and soon
Market movements over the past two business days have been unusually sharp. A week ago, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes (which mortgage rates often swing) closed at 1.42%. But last night they closed at 1.21%. And this morning, they stood at 1.15%. Those are huge differences.
You can attribute those falls to pure emotion: that is, fear. Now, there are solid grounds for some fears about the potential damage that COVID-19 could cause to the global economy. But, if some new medical statistic or economic number caused recent declines in yields on Treasuries, mortgage rates, and stocks, it was something that passed me by. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid seems to agree, according to this morning’s Guardian:
Unlike some previous Covid-related selloffs (or vaccine rallies for that matter), there did not appear to be a single trigger point behind yesterday’s defeat, which instead appeared to be the culmination of mounting fears that a return to life. ‘normalcy’ could be quite a bit further than what many expected a few months ago.
Therefore, it seems likely that investors were suddenly spooked by a risk that has been in the open for months. And despite the myth of perfect markets, they are just as vulnerable to herding behavior as consumers when they panic buying toilet paper.
The problem is that an emotion-driven herd mentality is inherently fickle and unpredictable. It already looks like mortgage rates could fall much more slowly today. And I can’t decide if they will recover more in the next few days (or weeks or months) or go down again. I doubt anyone can, least of all those of the pack.
Read Saturday’s weekend issue for more information.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new weekly all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates went up.
However, those increases were mostly replaced by declines in April and since, albeit only small ones. Freddie’s July 15 report places that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 rates and points), down from 2.90% the previous week. And it is very likely that they will be even lower at Thursday’s launch.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are your current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on July 19, Freddie’s on July 15, and MBA’s on June 18.
However, given so many unknowns, the current crop of forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to more vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others are still brave. And you can probably still find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or giant loan that you want. You just have to shop around more widely.
But of course, you should make extensive comparisons, regardless of the type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Office says:
Comparing prices on your mortgage has the potential to generate real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new rate (July 21, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We came up with an average rate and APR for each type of loan to show on our graph. Because we average a variety of rates, it gives you a better idea of what to find on the market. Also, we average rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Did mortgage interest rates drop today?
Today’s mortgage refinance rates are down: July 15, 2021 The average 30-year fixed refinance rate is 3.10 percent, 4 basis points less than a week ago. The average 15-year fixed refinance rate is now 2.43 percent, 1 basis point less than in the same period last week.
What is the lowest mortgage rate ever?
The trend in mortgage rates continued to decline until rates fell to 3.31% in November 2012, the lowest level in the history of mortgage rates.
What was the lowest mortgage rate in 2020?
Mortgage rates in 2020 have fallen as the Federal Reserve cut rates in response to COVID-19. As of this writing in November 2020, the 30-year average fixed mortgage rate with a 20% down payment had just hit new all-time lows at 2.72% according to Freddie Mac.
What did refinance rates do today?
|30-year fixed rate||2,990%||3.160%|
|20-year fixed rate||2,850%||3.030%|
|15-year fixed rate||2,320%||2,550%|
|ARM rate 10/1||3.720%||4.150%|
What will interest rates be in 2022?
The FOMC expects the rate to fall to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Should I lock my mortgage rate today 2020?
If you want to avoid uncertainty and preserve the rate in your mortgage loan offer, get a mortgage interest rate lock. Interest rate locks can offer borrowers peace of mind, but they are not foolproof – you could lose a lower interest rate after locking, and your loan may not close before the lock expires.
Are mortgage rates expected to go up or down in 2020?
In 2020 we saw mortgage rates hit record low after record low. But many experts expect rates to rise in 2021. As the economy begins to reopen, we should see mortgage and refinance rates rise.
Will mortgage rates keep dropping?
Unfortunately, there is little chance that mortgage rates will continue to decline in 2021. … “Home prices are expected to continue to rise due to demographics, low interest rates, and a strong economy creating demand pressure. Awaiting home buyers face the double challenge of higher home prices coupled with higher inflation.
Did mortgage rates drop this week?
Mortgage rates continue to fall, as a result of a new round of uncertainty about the recovery of the US economy from the COVID-19 pandemic. The average rate on 30-year mortgages fell this week to 3.04 percent from 3.11 percent last week, according to Bankrate’s weekly survey of large lenders.
What causes mortgage rates to drop?
If there are fewer homes on the market, there will be fewer people applying for mortgages. This causes mortgage rates to drop. Similarly, if there are more people renting versus people buying homes, that also translates into a drop in demand, which means a drop in mortgage rates.
What happens when interest rates go to zero?
Despite low yields, near-zero interest rates lower the cost of borrowing, which can help spur spending on business capital, investments, and household expenses. … Banks with little capital to lend were hit especially hard by the financial crisis. Low interest rates can also drive up asset prices.