Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates dropped considerably yesterday. There are four consecutive business days of falls. And now they are exceptionally low; not a million miles from its lowest point.
And they may not be finished yet. Because, judging by initial activity in major markets, these declines may be slowing rather than stopping. And mortgage rates today seem likely to decline modestly. But overnight, the markets pointed to a small rally, so things are far from stable – and may change over the hours.
Find and lock a low rate (July 21, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find and lock a low rate (July 21, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest news on how coronavirus can affect your home loan, click here.
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Keep reading the reasons why mortgage rates are currently so unpredictable. Unfortunately, this makes crashing and floating risky.
Those of us who have predicted higher mortgage rates (virtually all experts and observers) have thus far proven us dead wrong. But just because we’ve misinterpreted the moment doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t increase soon. And as long as the forces that should be driving these higher rates remain strong, I have to maintain my long-term view. However, I am less confident than before.
Therefore, while they should be interpreted within that context, my personal rate blocking recommendations should remain:
However, I don’t claim a perfect prediction. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. Therefore, you can choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here is a summary of the state of play this morning at around 9:50 am EDT. The data, compared to approximately the same time as yesterday, were:
* A change of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, we only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and Federal Reserve interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high levels until things calm down.
Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to count on them. But with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today appear to have a modest decline. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) is a common feature right now.
Find and lock a low rate (July 21, 2021)
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the next few hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
Today and soon
Market movements over the past working days were unusually accentuated. A week ago, the yield on 10-year Treasury bills (which mortgage rates often shadow) closed at 1.42%. But last night, they closed at 1.21%. And this morning, they were at 1.15%. Those are huge differences.
You can attribute these falls to pure emotion: namely, fear. There are now solid grounds for some fear about the potential damage COVID-19 could do to the global economy. But if some new medical statistic or economic number triggered recent declines in Treasury yields, mortgage rates, and equities, it was one that passed me by. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank seems to agree, according to this morning’s Guardian:
Unlike some previous Covid-related sales (or vaccine rallies, for that matter), there didn’t seem to be a single trigger point behind yesterday’s defeat, which instead appeared to be the culmination of growing fears that a return to ‘normalcy’ could be a little further away than many expected a few months ago.
So it seems likely that investors are suddenly frightened by a risk that has been in sight for months. And despite the myth of perfect markets, they are just as vulnerable to herd behavior as consumers are when they panic when buying toilet paper.
The problem is that this emotion-driven herd mentality is inherently unstable and unpredictable. It already looks like mortgage rates could drop much more slowly today. And I can’t decide if they’ll bounce back in the next few days (or weeks or months) or fall off again. I doubt anyone can, least of all those in the herd.
Read the Saturday weekend issue for more information.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Rates Are Rising?
Throughout much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new weekly low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low came on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.
However, these increases were mostly replaced by declines in April and since then, albeit only minor ones. Freddie’s July 15 report puts that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 rates and points), down from 2.90% the previous week. And it’s very likely that they’ll be even smaller in Thursday’s release.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are your current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3/21 and Q4/21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1/22 and Q2/22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s was updated on July 19th, Freddie’s on July 15th and the MBA on June 18th.
However, given so many unknowns, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some creditors were frightened by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the tastiest mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can probably still find the cash refinancing, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just have to search more widely.
But, of course, you should extensively compare comparisons, regardless of the type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states:
Buying your mortgage has the potential to generate real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new rate (July 21, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage Reports receive fees based on selected criteria from multiple loan partners each day. We came up with an average rate and APR for each loan type to display on our chart. Since we average a series of rates, you have a better idea of what you can find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
What did refinance rates do today?
|30-year fixed rate||2.990%||3.160%|
|20-year fixed rate||2,850%||3.030%|
|15-year fixed rate||2,320%||2,550%|
|ARM Rate 10/1||3.720%||4,150%|
Are mortgage rates expected to go up or down in 2020?
In 2020, we saw mortgage rates hit one record low after another. But many experts expect rates to rise in 2021. As the economy starts to reopen, we should see mortgage and refinancing rates rise.
What will interest rates be in 2022?
The FOMC expects the rate to fall to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Should I lock my mortgage rate today 2020?
If you want to avoid uncertainty and preserve the rate on your mortgage loan offer, get a mortgage interest rate lock. Interest rate locks can give borrowers peace of mind, but they’re not foolproof – you could lose a lower interest rate after you lock, and your loan might not close before the lock expires.
Will mortgage rates keep dropping?
Unfortunately, there is little chance that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2021. … “House prices are likely to continue to rise due to demographic factors, low interest rates and a strong economy, creating demand pressure. Waiting homebuyers face the dual challenges of higher prices and higher inflation.
What happens when interest rates go to zero?
Despite low returns, near-zero interest rates lower the cost of borrowing, which can help boost spending on business capital, investments and family expenses. … Banks with little capital to lend have been hit particularly hard by the financial crisis. Low interest rates can also increase asset prices.
What causes mortgage rates to drop?
If there are fewer homes on the market, there will be fewer people applying for mortgages. This causes mortgage rates to drop. Likewise, if there are more people renting than people buying houses, it also results in a drop in demand, which means a drop in mortgage rates.
Did mortgage rates drop this week?
Mortgage rates are still falling, a result of a new round of uncertainty about the recovery of the US economy from the COVID-19 pandemic. The average rate on 30-year mortgages fell this week to 3.04% from 3.11% last week, according to Bankrate’s weekly survey of major lenders.
Did mortgage interest rates drop today?
Today’s Mortgage Refinance Rates Fall – July 15, 2021 The average 30-year fixed refinance rate is 3.10%, 4 basis points below the previous week. The average 15-year fixed refi rate is now 2.43%, 1 basis point below the same period last week.
What is the lowest mortgage rate ever?
The trend in mortgage rates continued to decline until rates dropped to 3.31% in November 2012 – the lowest level in the history of mortgage rates.
What was the lowest mortgage rate in 2020?
Mortgage rates in 2020 fell due to lower Federal Reserve rates in response to COVID-19. At the time of this writing, in November 2020, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 20% down payment had just hit new record lows of 2.72% according to Freddie Mac.