Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell significantly yesterday. It’s four consecutive working days of falls. And now they are exceptionally low; not a million miles from their all-time low.
And they may not be finished yet. Because, judging by early activity in key markets, those falls could slow rather than stop. And mortgage rates look slightly lower today. But, during the night, the markets were indicating a small increase, so things are far from stable and could change as the hours go by.
Find and block low fare (July 21, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find and block low fare (July 21, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest news on the impact of the coronavirus on home loans, click here.
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Read on to find out why mortgage rates are currently so unpredictable. Unfortunately, this makes both locking and floating risky.
Those of us who have predicted higher mortgage rates (virtually all experts and observers) have so far proved completely wrong. But the fact that we have misinterpreted the times does not necessarily mean that they will not increase anytime soon. And, as long as the forces that should push these rates higher remain strong, I must stick to my long-held view. However, I’m less confident than I used to be.
So, although they must be interpreted in that context, my personal recommendations on fare lock must remain:
However, I do not claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may turn out to be as good as mine, or even better. So you may choose to be guided by your gut and your personal risk tolerance.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the progress this morning at around 9:50 am (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, were:
* A change of less than $ 20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a fraction of 1%. So we only count significant differences such as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the figures above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its former high levels until things have calmed down.
So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with this warning, mortgage rates today look set to decline modestly so far. But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find and block low fare (July 21, 2021)
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
So there is a lot to do here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the next few hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
Today and soon
Market movements over the past two business days have been unusually sharp. A week ago, the yield on 10-year Treasury bills (which mortgage rates often obscure) closed at 1.42%. But last night they closed at 1.21%. And this morning they stood at 1.15%. These are huge differences.
You can attribute those falls to pure emotion: that is, fear. Now, there are solid reasons to fear the potential damage COVID-19 could cause to the global economy. But, if any new medical statistics or economic numbers have triggered recent declines in Treasury yields, mortgage rates, and equities, it was one that I missed. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid appears to agree, according to the Guardian this morning:
Unlike some previous Covid-related clearance sales (or vaccine rallies in fact), there didn’t seem to be a single trigger point behind yesterday’s route, which instead seemed to be the culmination of growing fears that a return to “normal” could be. a little farther than many had hoped a few months ago.
Hence, it seems likely that investors have suddenly become scared of a risk that has been in plain sight for months. And, despite the myth of perfect markets, they are as vulnerable to herd behavior as consumers are when they panic to buy toilet paper.
The problem is that such an emotion-driven herd mentality is inherently fickle and unpredictable. Already today it seems that mortgage rates may fall much more slowly. And I can’t tell if they will recover further in the next few days (or weeks or months) or retire again. I doubt anyone can do it, least of all those of the herd.
Read Saturday’s weekend edition for more information.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Going Up?
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates has been clearly downward. And a new weekly all time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates went up.
However, these increases have mostly been replaced by declines in April and since then, albeit only small ones. Freddie’s July 15 report puts that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 commissions and points), down from 2.90% the previous week. And it is very likely that they will decrease again with the release on Thursday.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are the current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below refer to 30-year fixed rate mortgages. The Fannies were updated on July 19th, Freddie’s on July 15th and the MBAs on June 18th.
However, given so many unknowns, the current forecast collection may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they’re limiting their offers to only the tastiest mortgages and refinances.
But others remain courageous. And you can probably still find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just have to look around more widely.
But, of course, you should do comparative purchases extensively, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator of the Consumer Financial Protection Office states:
Searching around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. That might not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage will save you thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
Check your new rate (July 21, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from multiple loan partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to be displayed in our graph. Since we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find on the market. Additionally, we average the rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Did mortgage interest rates drop today?
Mortgage Refinancing Rates Lower Today – July 15, 2021 The 30-year average fixed refinancing rate is 3.10 percent, down 4 basis points from a week ago. The 15-year average fixed refi rate is now 2.43 percent, down 1 basis point from the same period last week.
What was the lowest mortgage rate in 2020?
Mortgage rates in 2020 fell due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in response to COVID-19. At the time of this writing, in November 2020, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate with a 20% down payment had just hit new record lows of 2.72% according to Freddie Mac.
What is the lowest mortgage rate ever?
The trend in mortgage rates continued to decline until rates fell to 3.31% in November 2012, the lowest level in mortgage rate history.
Will mortgage rates keep dropping?
Unfortunately, there is little chance that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2021. … “House prices are expected to continue to rise due to demographics, low interest rates and a strong economy that puts pressure on demand. Waiting home buyers face the double challenge of rising house prices and inflation.
What happens when interest rates go to zero?
Despite low yields, near-zero interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing, which can help stimulate corporate capital spending, investment and household spending. … Banks with little capital to lend have been particularly hard hit by the financial crisis. Low interest rates can also raise asset prices.
What causes mortgage rates to drop?
If there are fewer houses on the market, there will be fewer people asking for mortgages. This brings down mortgage rates. Likewise, if there are more people renting than there are people buying houses, this also translates into a drop in demand, which means a drop in mortgage rates.
Did mortgage rates drop this week?
Mortgage rates are still falling, due to a new round of uncertainty about the US economy’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell this week to 3.04 percent from 3.11 percent last week, according to Bankrate’s weekly survey of large lenders.
What did refinance rates do today?
|Fixed rate at 30 years||2.990%||3.160%|
|Fixed rate 20 yearsY||2.850%||3.030%|
|Fixed rate of 15 years||2.320%||2.550%|
|ARM rate 10/1||3.720%||4.150%|
What will interest rates be in 2022?
The FOMC expects the rate to drop to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Should I lock my mortgage rate today 2020?
If you want to avoid uncertainty and preserve the rate in your mortgage loan offer, get a mortgage interest rate lock. Interest rate locks may offer borrowers peace of mind, but they are not foolproof – you may lose a lower interest rate after the lock and your loan may not close before the lock expires.
Are mortgage rates expected to go up or down in 2020?
In 2020, we saw mortgage rates hit record lows after another. But many experts predict that rates will rise in 2021. As the economy begins to reopen, we should see mortgage and refinancing rates rise.