Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell significantly yesterday. That’s four consecutive working days of falls. And they are now exceptionally low; not a million miles from their all-time low.
And they may not be over yet. Because, judging by the early activity in key markets, these falls could be slowing rather than stopping. And today’s mortgage rates look likely to drop slightly. But, overnight, the markets were showing a slight uptick, so things are far from stable and could change over the hours.
Find and Lock in a Low Rate (Jul 21, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find and Lock in a Low Rate (Jul 21, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage Lenders Change Rates and Rules Due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Read on to find out why mortgage rates are currently so unpredictable. Unfortunately, this makes both locking and floating risky.
Those of us who predicted higher mortgage rates (virtually all experts and observers) have so far been completely wrong. But just because we’ve misinterpreted the timing doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t increase soon. And, as long as the forces that should drive these rates up remain strong, I must stick to my long-held view. However, I am less confident than before.
So, although they should be interpreted in this context, my personal rate foreclosure recommendations should remain:
However, I do not claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out as good as mine, if not better. You can therefore choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was as follows:
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are generally right. But our accuracy record won’t hit its former high levels until things calm down.
Therefore, only use the markets as a guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to lean on them. But, with this caveat, so far mortgage rates look likely to drop slightly. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and Lock in a Low Rate (Jul 21, 2021)
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you should know:
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
Today and soon
Market movements over the past two business days have been exceptionally strong. A week ago, the yield on 10-year Treasuries (which mortgage rates often hide) closed at 1.42%. But, last night, they closed at 1.21%. And this morning, they stood at 1.15%. These are huge differences.
You can attribute these falls to pure emotion: namely, fear. Now, there are strong reasons to fear the potential damage COVID-19 could cause to the global economy. But, if a new medical statistic or an economic number triggered a recent drop in Treasury yields, mortgage rates and stocks, it was one that escaped me. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid seems to agree, according to the Guardian this morning:
Unlike some previous Covid-related sales (or vaccine rallies for that matter), there didn’t seem to be a single trigger point behind yesterday’s rout, which instead seemed to be the culmination of growing fears than a return to “normalcy” may be a little further than many had hoped a few months ago.
It therefore seems likely that investors suddenly became afraid of a risk that had been visible for months. And, despite the myth of perfect markets, they are as vulnerable to herd behavior as consumers are when they panic for toilet paper.
The problem is, such an emotion-driven herd mentality is inherently fickle and unpredictable. Already, it looks like mortgage rates could come down much more slowly today. And I can’t call to find out if they’ll rebound more in the next few days (or weeks or months) or fall again. I doubt anyone can do it, let alone those of the herd.
Read the Saturday weekend edition for more information.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
Through much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates went up.
However, most of these increases were replaced by declines in April and since, albeit small. Freddie’s July 15 report puts that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points), down from 2.90% the week before. And it is highly likely that they will be even lower at the exit on Thursday.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
In the longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, the real estate sector and mortgage rates. .
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The figures in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. The Fannie’s were updated on July 19, Freddie’s on July 15, and the MBA’s on June 18.
However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.
But others remain courageous. And you can still probably find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.
But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparisons regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states:
Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of an interest point on your mortgage can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new rate (Jul 21, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.
Will mortgage rates keep dropping?
Unfortunately, mortgage rates are unlikely to continue to fall in 2021. … “House prices are expected to continue to rise due to demographics, low interest rates and a strong economy creating pressure on demand. Homebuyers who wait face the double challenge of rising home prices and rising inflation.
What causes mortgage rates to drop?
If there is less housing on the market, there will be fewer people applying for a mortgage. This lowers mortgage rates. Likewise, if there are more tenants than buyers, this also translates into lower demand, which means lower mortgage rates.
What happens when interest rates go to zero?
Despite low yields, near-zero interest rates lower the cost of borrowing, which can help boost business capital spending, investment, and household spending. … Banks with little capital to lend have been particularly affected by the financial crisis. Low interest rates can also increase asset prices.
Did mortgage rates drop this week?
Mortgage rates continue to fall, amid a new wave of uncertainty about the recovery of the U.S. economy after the COVID-19 pandemic. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell this week to 3.04% from 3.11% last week, according to Bankrate’s weekly survey of major lenders.
What did refinance rates do today?
|30-year fixed rate||2.990%||3.160%|
|20-year fixed rate||2.850%||3.030%|
|15-year fixed rate||2.320%||2.550%|
|ARM rate 10/1||3.720%||4.150%|
Should I lock my mortgage rate today 2020?
If you want to avoid the uncertainty and preserve the rate on your mortgage offer, get a mortgage interest rate freeze. Interest rate locks can offer peace of mind to borrowers, but they’re not foolproof – you could miss out on a lower interest rate after the lock-up, and your loan might not be closed until the lock expires. .
What will interest rates be in 2022?
The FOMC expects the rate to drop to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Are mortgage rates expected to go up or down in 2020?
In 2020, we saw mortgage rates hit one record high after another. But many experts expect rates to rise in 2021. As the economy begins to reopen, we should see mortgage and refinancing rates rise.
Did mortgage interest rates drop today?
Today’s Mortgage Refinance Rates Go Down – July 15, 2021 The 30-year average fixed refinance rate is 3.10%, down 4 basis points from a week ago. The 15-year average fixed refi rate is now 2.43%, down 1 basis point from the same period last week.
What was the lowest mortgage rate in 2020?
Mortgage rates in 2020 have fallen due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in response to COVID-19. As of this writing in November 2020, the 30-year average fixed mortgage rate with a down payment of 20% had just hit new records of 2.72% according to Freddie Mac.
What is the lowest mortgage rate ever?
The trend in mortgage rates continued to decline until rates fell to 3.31% in November 2012, the lowest level in mortgage rate history.